FSP - Electoral Studies

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Browsing FSP - Electoral Studies by Subject "Elections"

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    Economic intimidation in contemporary elections : evidence from Romania and Bulgaria
    (Cambridge University Press, 2018) Mares, Isabela; Muntean, Aurelian; Petrova, Tsveta
    This article examines electoral intimidation of voters at their workplace in contemporary new democracies. What is the relative importance of workplace intimidation in the broader portfolio of clientelistic strategies used by politicians at times of elections? What explains the subnational variation in the incidence of this electoral strategy? We answer these questions using empirical evidence from two East European countries– Romania and Bulgaria. We assess the prevalence of non-programmatic electoral mobilization in these countries by using list experiments, a survey methodology that elicits unbiased and truthful responses to sensitive political questions. We nd that in both countries, workplace intimidation is an important component in the repertoire of non- programmatic mobilization used at election times. Workplace intimidation is especially pervasive in localities dominated by a small number of large employ- ers. The importance of economic intimidation in the portfolio of clientelistic strategies declines as the economic heterogeneity of the locality increases.
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    European Elections and Financial Markets: Navigating Political Winds and Market Reactions
    (Sciendo, 2024) Stancea, Andreea; Ciocîrlan, Cecilia; Despina, Adrian
    A new wave of extreme right-wing political parties entered the European political scene both on the national levels and the European supra-governmental level sparking fears about the rule of law among investors and policymakers. The European Parliament’s elections scheduled for June 2024 are seen as a crucial turning point in the continent's political landscape. Using a mix of OLS regressions and event study, this paper analyzed how stock markets and bond markets reacted to European elections. The results show that the incumbent government's fiscal record appears to influence its re-election chances in developing countries and markets price weak fiscal balances around elections. The paper assessed how government bond markets reacted to the EP’s elections rounds of 2014 and 2019. These rounds of elections have been dominated by the political parties with cantered-orientated ideologies which may not be the case for the next round of elections in 2024. The results show how EP’s elections stabilized bond markets, especially in countries with weak macroeconomic fundamentals. The results emphasize the intricate relationship between fiscal policies, political events, and financial market behaviour. Investors, policymakers, and governments should consider these findings when assessing electoral and market dynamics, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 European Parliament elections.
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    Hybrid Warfare through Interference in Electoral Processes Using Advanced Technology and Its Impact on Global Security. Case Study: The 2024 Romanian Presidential Election
    (Sciendo, 2025) Gabor, Eugen; Oancea, Marian; Pripp, Vladimir
    In the 21st century, the climate of the geopolitical arena is significantly more volatile than for most of the second half of the 20th century. Asymmetrical threats generated mainly but not exclusively by non-state entities compelled regional and worldwide forces to reevaluate their main security strategies. Moreover, several state entities that are highly relevant to managing global issues engaged in much more unpredictable behavior than usual. The spectacular technological developments of the last two decades, which seem to evolve in an exponential manner, created new tools for those who aim to alter the geostrategic status quo through hybrid warfare actions. The main goal of our study is to present some preliminary conclusions on the impact that the use of new technologies by hostile foreign forces in electoral processes can have on the institutional architecture that at least in some parts of the globe managed to ensure a stable and secure environment for several decades. These conclusions are drawn through a case study that analyzes the recent annulment of the first round of the Romanian presidential election. Although many details of this event are not yet clarified, at least for public opinion, the available information clearly suggests that hybrid warfare through new technologies is able to create mistrust and sever links that are vital for ensuring stability both at a national and international level. The Romanian case proves that the main objective of interferences in elections is not always that of helping a certain candidate to win but creating chaos.