FSP - Electoral Studies

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The resurrection of the radical political movements
(SNSPA, 2014) Țăranu, Andrei
In the last decade the radical political movements became a important threat to European democracies in the conditions of decline on popularity of main political ideological parties all across the Europe. Especially nationalist radical movements seems to became more popular between the citizens after they took from the populist parties the Euroskeptical message and the radical message against minorities or immigrants. The extremist message of those parties or radical movements it s pretty much the same even they are located in different counties or cultures. The radical message of Golden Dawn in Greece an Christian Orthodox culture is similar with the Magyar Hajnal (Hungarian Dawns) in Hungary a Catholic and Protestant culture or Progress Party from Norway a more secular culture than religious based. Our paper is focused on the origins of those parties in Europe and their radical message against immigrants or social/ethnic minorities. We argue that such parties succeed over the long term only when they both 1) build on pre-existing nationalist organizations and networks and 2) face a permissive rather than repressive political environment. Those parties develop themsleves on the fertile ground of far right wing populism and assume a very narrow to the fascist discourse of the beginings of the XXth century in order to contest the economical and democratic order. By adding factors such as historical legacies, party organization, and interactions between mainstream parties and far right challengers to the study of radical right parties, we can better understand their divergent trajectories"
Europeanization of green parties in Central and Eastern Europe
(Medimond, 2016) Crăciun, Claudiu
The paper sets up a framework to understand and further research the role of European party federations as governance and Europeanization actors in central and Eastern Europe. The specific case is the European Green Party (EGP) and the members and associated parties in the regions. From preliminary findings, there are discursive, programmatic and organizational changes in the parties of the region. The research can fit into the larger Europeanization literature with so far has engaged only selectively the European Party Federation. Apparently, the EGP is in a unique position. The number of contenders, with their relatively small size and weak electoral performance, makes EGP a power for actor in relation to the CEE parties. In many cases, it acts like a gatekeeper of European governance.
Economic intimidation in contemporary elections : evidence from Romania and Bulgaria
(Cambridge University Press, 2018) Mares, Isabela; Muntean, Aurelian; Petrova, Tsveta
This article examines electoral intimidation of voters at their workplace in contemporary new democracies. What is the relative importance of workplace intimidation in the broader portfolio of clientelistic strategies used by politicians at times of elections? What explains the subnational variation in the incidence of this electoral strategy? We answer these questions using empirical evidence from two East European countries– Romania and Bulgaria. We assess the prevalence of non-programmatic electoral mobilization in these countries by using list experiments, a survey methodology that elicits unbiased and truthful responses to sensitive political questions. We nd that in both countries, workplace intimidation is an important component in the repertoire of non- programmatic mobilization used at election times. Workplace intimidation is especially pervasive in localities dominated by a small number of large employ- ers. The importance of economic intimidation in the portfolio of clientelistic strategies declines as the economic heterogeneity of the locality increases.
AUR : the electoral geography of Romanian conservative nationalism
(SAGE Publications, 2023) Crăciun, Claudiu; Țăranu, Andrei
In December 2020, Romania held elections for its new Parliament amid the pandemic crisis. The voter turnout was historically low, at 31.84%. The Alliance for the Union of Romanians, a new party, won 9% ofthe vote, making it the fourth largest party in the Parliament. Having received only 0.29% of the votes in thelocal elections held 2 months prior, Alliance for the Union of Romanians' success was unexpected. To explain this outcome, we analyse its programmatic choices, political strategy and symbolic and electoralgeographies. The pandemic crisis allowed the consolidation of a nationalist and conservative constituency originating in the 2018 constitutional referendum to ban same-sex marriages. Romania's example shows that a nationalist-conservative radical party can become viable if extra-political groups, networks and organisations are willing to lend significant local support to it.
Keep the (social) distance! : turnout and risk perception during health crisis
(Springer Nature, 2024) Stancea, Andreea; Muntean, Aurelian
This article investigates the relationship between risk perception and electoral participation of citizens. To assess this, we use the case study of the novel coronavirus and its relationship with voter turnout during the 2020 Romanian elections. We assess the relationship between COVID-19 and citizens’ intention to cast a vote by employing an individual model. Additionally, using the share rate of the infected population with COVID-19, we examine the association between the intensity of the outbreak across counties and electoral participation. Either though our research is cross-sectional and focuses on covariation rather than causal relationships, provides insightful results. The individual model shows that the higher the risk perception of infection is, the lower the intention to cast a vote. The aggregated exploratory model employed shows that an increase in the percentage of the shared infected population decreases the chance of electoral participation.
European Elections and Financial Markets: Navigating Political Winds and Market Reactions
(Sciendo, 2024) Stancea, Andreea; Ciocîrlan, Cecilia; Despina, Adrian
A new wave of extreme right-wing political parties entered the European political scene both on the national levels and the European supra-governmental level sparking fears about the rule of law among investors and policymakers. The European Parliament’s elections scheduled for June 2024 are seen as a crucial turning point in the continent's political landscape. Using a mix of OLS regressions and event study, this paper analyzed how stock markets and bond markets reacted to European elections. The results show that the incumbent government's fiscal record appears to influence its re-election chances in developing countries and markets price weak fiscal balances around elections. The paper assessed how government bond markets reacted to the EP’s elections rounds of 2014 and 2019. These rounds of elections have been dominated by the political parties with cantered-orientated ideologies which may not be the case for the next round of elections in 2024. The results show how EP’s elections stabilized bond markets, especially in countries with weak macroeconomic fundamentals. The results emphasize the intricate relationship between fiscal policies, political events, and financial market behaviour. Investors, policymakers, and governments should consider these findings when assessing electoral and market dynamics, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 European Parliament elections.
Hybrid Warfare through Interference in Electoral Processes Using Advanced Technology and Its Impact on Global Security. Case Study: The 2024 Romanian Presidential Election
(Sciendo, 2025) Gabor, Eugen; Oancea, Marian; Pripp, Vladimir
In the 21st century, the climate of the geopolitical arena is significantly more volatile than for most of the second half of the 20th century. Asymmetrical threats generated mainly but not exclusively by non-state entities compelled regional and worldwide forces to reevaluate their main security strategies. Moreover, several state entities that are highly relevant to managing global issues engaged in much more unpredictable behavior than usual. The spectacular technological developments of the last two decades, which seem to evolve in an exponential manner, created new tools for those who aim to alter the geostrategic status quo through hybrid warfare actions. The main goal of our study is to present some preliminary conclusions on the impact that the use of new technologies by hostile foreign forces in electoral processes can have on the institutional architecture that at least in some parts of the globe managed to ensure a stable and secure environment for several decades. These conclusions are drawn through a case study that analyzes the recent annulment of the first round of the Romanian presidential election. Although many details of this event are not yet clarified, at least for public opinion, the available information clearly suggests that hybrid warfare through new technologies is able to create mistrust and sever links that are vital for ensuring stability both at a national and international level. The Romanian case proves that the main objective of interferences in elections is not always that of helping a certain candidate to win but creating chaos.

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