Browsing by Author "Buti, Daniel"

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    Measuring Likely Voters. A Model for Predicting Electoral Participation in Romanian Presidential Elections
    (2022) Sultănescu, Dan ; Buti, Daniel; Sultănescu, Daniela
    Predicting voter turnout by estimating the proportion of likely voters as accurately as possible is a challenging task and it is debated both in literature and among experts actively involved in the field of sociological research and polling organizations. While there are several variables that influence turnout, and also several methods and models that have been put into practice over time, in reality there is no magic formula for correctly measuring, before an election, the percentage of individuals that are most likely to vote. Each national context comes with particular variables, as well as historical factors and demographic dynamics that need to be taken into account. We propose a model built on pre-election survey data and on past official election statistics, which has been tested and proven viable in the context of the 2019 Romanian presidential election.
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    Political Shifts and Social Dynamics in Eastern Europe: Exploring the Recent Rise of Romania’s Populist Radical Right Movement
    (2025) Buti, Daniel; Sultanescu, Dan; Sultanescu, Dana C.
    The recent rise of populist political forces in Romania reflects a broader European trend but marks a significant local shift. Our study analyzes the populist phenomenon from both the demand side (i.e., the Romanian electorate’s populist inclinations), and the supply side (examining the characteristics of the political offerings aligning with these inclinations). Using nationally representative survey data (N = 2,714), we estimate Romanians’ populist attitudes by applying a methodological approach that allows for a nuanced categorization. Additionally, our analysis links strong populist attitudes to support for the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), and we investigate the party’s ideology to assess its alignment with populist radical right characteristics. This study contributes to understanding Romanian populism by analyzing the interplay between societal demand and political supply.