FSP - Electoral Studies

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Browsing FSP - Electoral Studies by Author "Stancea, Andreea"

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    European Elections and Financial Markets: Navigating Political Winds and Market Reactions
    (Sciendo, 2024) Stancea, Andreea; Ciocîrlan, Cecilia; Despina, Adrian
    A new wave of extreme right-wing political parties entered the European political scene both on the national levels and the European supra-governmental level sparking fears about the rule of law among investors and policymakers. The European Parliament’s elections scheduled for June 2024 are seen as a crucial turning point in the continent's political landscape. Using a mix of OLS regressions and event study, this paper analyzed how stock markets and bond markets reacted to European elections. The results show that the incumbent government's fiscal record appears to influence its re-election chances in developing countries and markets price weak fiscal balances around elections. The paper assessed how government bond markets reacted to the EP’s elections rounds of 2014 and 2019. These rounds of elections have been dominated by the political parties with cantered-orientated ideologies which may not be the case for the next round of elections in 2024. The results show how EP’s elections stabilized bond markets, especially in countries with weak macroeconomic fundamentals. The results emphasize the intricate relationship between fiscal policies, political events, and financial market behaviour. Investors, policymakers, and governments should consider these findings when assessing electoral and market dynamics, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 European Parliament elections.
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    Keep the (social) distance! : turnout and risk perception during health crisis
    (Springer Nature, 2024) Stancea, Andreea; Muntean, Aurelian
    This article investigates the relationship between risk perception and electoral participation of citizens. To assess this, we use the case study of the novel coronavirus and its relationship with voter turnout during the 2020 Romanian elections. We assess the relationship between COVID-19 and citizens’ intention to cast a vote by employing an individual model. Additionally, using the share rate of the infected population with COVID-19, we examine the association between the intensity of the outbreak across counties and electoral participation. Either though our research is cross-sectional and focuses on covariation rather than causal relationships, provides insightful results. The individual model shows that the higher the risk perception of infection is, the lower the intention to cast a vote. The aggregated exploratory model employed shows that an increase in the percentage of the shared infected population decreases the chance of electoral participation.