Policies to bring about social-ecological tipping points in coal and carbon intensive regions

Abstract

Achieving the worldwide greenhouse gases (GHGs) reduction targets set in the 2015 Paris Agreement and other international treaties requires reaching a fast tipping point towards sustainably decreasing emissions. Compared to sectoral energy transitions, where different parameters can be easily measured, transitions in Coal and Carbon Intensive Regions (CCIRs) are more complex and thus more challenging to plan, implement, and study. Despite CCIRs' heterogeneity in the population, level of development, economic structure, surface, and transition timing, achieving Social-Ecological Tipping Points (SETPs) poses some common dilemmas to the local, regional, and national authorities. Simultaneously, the transition process poses significant challenges to the economies and local populations. To understand how policy choices can accelerate reaching positive SETPs, we systematically analyze policy responses since the start of the transition to a low-carbon economy for thirteen CCIRs. We evaluate whether, despite the heterogeneity, we can identify policy response patterns and whether these patterns correlate with other features of these regions. We extrapolate the characteristics of policy changes and local developments needed to generate SETPs and discuss the effects of different events on the regional transition's overall justness of this process. Finally, we advance some recommendations on designing policies to achieve positive SETPs.