The Impact of" Black Swan" Events on Oil and the European Capital Markets

Abstract

The price of oil and, indirectly, the performance of the stock indexes were significantly impacted by the evolution of the energy market in the context of the switch to renewable energy sources and the modifications in global energy policy. This paper proposes a comprehensive analysis of several crucial financial field elements, with particular attention to the evolution of stock indices, financial market volatility, and investor response to major events that have recently caused changes in the global economy. Using advanced economic and statistical models, the paper shows the complex relationship between the analysed stock indices, the trends and changes that occurred within them and the relevant influencing factors, such as the price of oil and the Baltic Dry Index.The results of the DCC-GARCH models highlight a significant positive correlation between the stock indices of several European countries, underlining the interconnection of these markets in conditions of increased volatility.