When policies fuel economic cycles

Abstract

The Great Recession has brought back into the limelight the issue of cycles, of policies which fuel, or mitigate crises. There is a specter of much lower economic growth in the industrialized world. Central banks are over-burdened. This makes central bankers’ life much more complicated and obfuscates the borders between monetary policy and fiscal policy, especially when financial stability gets to center stage. New systemic risks show up in capital markets. The Eurozone has escaped collapse owing to ECB’s extraordinary operations and large macro-imbalance corrections in its periphery, but major threats persist. This paper focuses on economic cycles and policies in an international (European) context. The financial cycle is a key concept in the logic of this paper. The experience of European emerging economies is taken into account. Attention is paid to linkages between domestic cycles and financial cycles, drivers of financial cycles, finance deregulation and systemic risks, ultra low interest rates, the international policy regime and global stability.