Lessons from Romaniaʼs EU Accession for Todayʼs Candidate States

Abstract

Romaniaʼs EU accession in 2007, after a decade of externally anchored reform, offers an instructive case for todayʼs enlargement candidates. This paper examines the pre-accession periodʼs reform achievements and their limits, the post-accession reversal driven by moral hazard and political economy, and sectoral outcomes across energy, information technology, public administration, and judicial reform. It then situates Romaniaʼs macro-structural trajectory — consumption-led convergence, twin deficits, and a narrowing fiscal corridor — within the broader convergence debate. Five lessons emerge for current candidates: conditionality is powerful but time-limited; fiscal institutions matter more than fiscal targets; absorption capacity is a binding constraint that must be built pre-accession; post-accession boom-bust dynamics are predictable and require a pre-emptive policy; and honest political narratives about the benefits and costs of reforms are a precondition for durable change.