Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on Black Sea trade: Geoeconomic challenges

Abstract

This paper investigates the strategic importanceof the Black Sea region in the context of the ongoingconflict in Ukraine. Focusing on trade dynamics,geopolitical actors, and regional cooperation, the studyanalyzes the region's transformation and the resultingimplications for global trade. The paper examines how theconflict has redefined trade relationships among BlackSea nations and major powers. For this purpose, trendmodels are evaluated for three-time samples for theexport and import of products of 7 countries of the BlackSea Basin in both nominal and relative dimensions. Intotal, the evaluation and analysis encompass 1764econometric models. Noteworthy trends include theevolving roles of the EU, the Middle East, and Russia, thepotential resurgence of Ukraine, and Turkey's mediatingrole. The post-conflict landscape could witnessheightened Western influence and continued Chineseengagement.