The path from distrusting Western actors to conspiracy beliefs and noncompliance with public health guidance during the COVID-19 crisis

Abstract

Global crises provide a fertile environment for the proliferation of disinformation and conspiracy narratives that feed on the people’s distrust of institutions. We investigate perceptions and beliefs related to COVID-19 in Romania during the lockdown and the state of alert (April and July 2020) using survey data. Building on measures tested in previous research, we identify the public’s vulnerability to conspiracy narratives and its willingness to comply with public health guidance. We test whether individuals exhibiting pro-Russian or anti-Western attitudes believe more strongly in COVID-19 conspiracy narratives compared to the rest of the population. Then, we check if those believing conspiracy narratives are less susceptible to comply with public health recommendations. We find an indirect relationship between distrusting Western actors and noncompliance with COVID-19 guidelines. Thus, pro-Russian and anti-EU, U.S. and NATO attitudes are linked to stronger conspiracy beliefs, which relate to lower levels of concern and knowledge regarding the virus, which in turn are associated with reduced compliance with official guidelines. This suggests that openness to anti-Western narratives may have behavioral consequences. The findings highlight potential sources of unsafe behaviors during the pandemic, especially in the young democracies of Eastern Europe.