DRIIE-International economics

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Browsing DRIIE-International economics by Subject "Euro area"

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    A central bank’s dilemmas in highly uncertain times - a Romanian view
    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, 2015-03) Dăianu, Daniel
    This paper looks at policy dilemmas the National Bank of Romania has faced over the years, with the analysis framed in a European and historical context. Some of these dilemmas are of an older vintage, such as how to deal with massive capital flows, how to combat high inflation when resource misallocation is a very burdensome legacy and expectations of high inflation are well entrenched. Other dilemmas are pretty new, or have got salience during the Great Recession. Romania has had to undertake a painful correction of its large macroeconomic imbalances. "Light" inflation targeting has provided leeway for mitigating the fallout from the financial crisis, although high euroization has dented its efficacy. The specter of stagnation in the Euro Area, financial deleveraging, unconventional policies which are pursued by key central banks, the ongoing reform of banking regulation and supervision, a growing shadow banking, how will the Banking Union evolve, etc, make up a very complicated European context and pose a range of big challenges for the central banks of New Member States (NMSs).
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    Revisiting Euro Area accession terms : fiscal rectitude is not sufficient!
    (Akademiai Kiado, 2019-01-01) Dăianu, Daniel
    This paper argues that there are conditions for successful euro area (EA) accession, apart from fiscal rectitude. One is an ex ante critical mass of real convergence which should enhance lasting nominal convergence. Another condition is an overhaul of EA mechanisms and policies that should make it a properly functioning monetary union, which implies an adequate mix between risk-reduction and risk-sharing. It is argued that risk-sharing cannot be secured by private sector arrangements only. Entering the ERM2 is deemed to be no less demanding than euro area accession per se, especially for countries that use flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper examines also the influence of production (value) chains on the efficacy of autonomous monetary and exchange rate policies when it comes to controlling external imbalances; macro-prudential policies, too, are highlighted in this regard. Steady productivity gains are a must for surmounting the middle income trap and achieving sustainable real convergence.
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    Romania's Euro Area accession : the question is under what terms!
    (European Institute of Romania, 2017-12) Dăianu, Daniel; Kallai, Ella; Mihailovici, Gabriela; Socol, Aura
    Euro area (EA) accession should mainly depend on the achievement of a critical mass of real and structural convergence, which should diminish the risks to operate in an incomplete monetary union. Accession would also be enhanced by reforms in the functioning of euro area institutions and policies which should deal with asymmetric shocks. We argue that the true stake of euro adoption in Romania should be neither “if’’ nor “when”, but “under what terms” and “how it will be done”. The essential prerequisite for real convergence is raising competitiveness. Our analysis shows common problems regarding competitiveness in new member states in terms of infrastructure, institutional development, business sophistication, innovation; it points out the scale of risks attached to a premature euro area accession. This accession does not require the achievement of the euro area average level of GDP/capita (in PPP terms). As we argue, one can imagine Romania’s accession after having achieved a minimum of 75% of euro area GDP/capita average and the fulfilment of a series of structural conditions against the backdrop of euro area reforms.
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    Which way Goes Romanian Capitalism? - making a case for reforms, inclusive institutions and a better functioning European Union
    (European Institute of Romania, 2013-12) Dăianu, Daniel; Murgescu, Bogdan
    This paper examines the Romanian economy and its version of capitalism from a long-term perspective and in a broad context. It focuses on economic prospects in the face of a legacy of backwardness and the endurance of domestic weaknesses, in the context of the Great Recession and the eurozone crisis. Romania has a pressing need to mobilise its internal resources and absorb EU funds on a much greater scale so that it can enhance economic growth and mitigate external shocks. To this end, Romania needs to undertake thorough reforms in the public sector, combat rent-seeking and waste, foster domestic savings. The functioning of institutions and of taxation should convey a sense of fairness to citizens. Romania needs to rethink its growth model. Romania must improve its education system by increasing the level of resources assigned to education and creating coherent policies to strengthen institutional capacities and to improve quality standards. The Romanian economy would benefit significantly from EU policies that are more responsive to the economic and social fractures revealed by the current crisis. Not least, financial markets have to be tamed in Europe and elsewhere if they are to serve economies.