Browsing by Author "Tudose Gabriela"

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    Demographic Dependency and the Future of the European Workforce: A Spatial–Temporal Forecasting Approach
    (MDPI, 2026-05-01) Lincaru, Cristina; Grigorescu Adriana; Pirciog Camelia Speranta; Tudose Gabriela
    This research paper examines the spatial and time variation of demographic dependency in Europe in a 30-year horizon of the evolution of the demographic dividend regarding the economic dependency ratio (ADR1). We used the Curve Fit Forecast tool to estimate the trends of ADR1 in each of the EU Member States using data on Eurostat projections and a sophisticated geostatistical analysis tool developed in ArcGIS Pro 3.2.2. The findings indicate that the dependency in all countries has increased significantly in a statistically significant manner as the Gompertz function has appeared as the best curve in a third of the cases. It is an S-shaped asymptotic behaviour of this function that effectively describes the nonlinear patterns of acceleration and saturation of demographic ageing. As indicated in the analysis, the European regions are increasingly moving apart, with the southern and eastern nations such as Romania demonstrating the most alarming decline in ADR1. These trends highlight the need to reform labour market policies and social protection mechanisms to an ageing population. The paper combines the curve-fitting, descriptive statistics (median, skewness, interquartile range (IQR)) with time clustering (value, correlation, and Fourier) to provide an effective, replicable approach to early warning and policy prioritisation. Overall, the results highlight the importance of integrating predictive spatial modelling and demographic economics to support anticipatory and evidence-based policy decisions. The proposed approach proves to be a robust and transferable framework, applicable to a wide range of socio-economic phenomena characterised by inertia and structural change. Future research should extend the analysis to subnational levels, incorporate additional explanatory variables, and develop scenario-based simulations, including multivariate Gompertz-type models, to further enhance both predictive accuracy and policy relevance in the context of emerging structural labour scarcity.
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    Quantifying Labour Shortages in Central and Eastern Europe: Standardized Methodologies for Sustainable Solutions
    (ASE Publishing House, 2025) Lincaru Cristina; Grigorescu Adriana; Tudose Gabriela
    Over the past two decades, Central and Eastern Europe has been significantly impacted by labour shortages, primarily caused by the migration of workers to Western Europe. In response to these shortages, many countries in the region, including Romania, have increasingly relied on migrant workers from outside Europe. In this context, using standardized methodologies for quantitatively measuring labour shortages becomes essential for developing effective public policies. This presentation explores the applicability of the labour market diagnostic tools developed by the World Bank, such as the Job Generation and Growth Decomposition Tool, the Jobs and Structural Change Excel Tool (JSCS), and the Jobs Group Demography Tool, to accurately assess labour market needs. Through these tools, we will analyze the impact of labour shortages on Romania's labour market, the contribution of migrant workers, and data-driven solutions aimed at ensuring labour market sustainability in the face of growing migrant inflows. Additionally, we will discuss the feasibility of attracting native workers from the diaspora as an alternative solution.