Browsing by Author "Lincaru, Cristina"

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Clusters as engines of sustainable employment growth in Romania1
(Sustainable Regional Development Scientific Journal, 2024) Lincaru, Cristina; Tudose, Gabriela; Cosnita, Daniel; Pirciog, Speranta; Grigorescu, Adriana; Ciuca, Vasilica
The imperative for sustainable growth has elevated clusters as pivotal tools for economic and social inclusion, fostering job creation, equitable income distribution, and regional competitiveness. A cluster comprises interrelated companies and institutionsin close geographical proximity, establishing expertise and a robust network of suppliers and skills. Clusters enhance productivity and catalyze development by concentrating enterprises and labor within a unified framework, surpassing isolated firms in regional impact. This study aims to examine whether clusters act as accelerators of employment growth over time and space. Using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) to analyze data from the Romanian Association of Clusters (CLUSTERO) and the National Institute of Statistics (Tempo INS) for 2013, 2015, 2019, and 2022, we investigate the research question: Do firms within clusters, as defined by European Policy criteria, contribute to accelerating employment creation? Specifically, we assess whether the ratio of employment in clustered firms relative to total employment shows a positive trend over time. Findings reveal that clusters contribute significantly to employment growth, validating their function as a strategic asset in enhancing workforce specialization, economic development, and regional resilience. Policy recommendations underscore the need for inclusive growth strategies that incorporate sustainability to maximize cluster impact on social and economic objectives.
Competitiveness and sustainable development in public services
(Sciendo, 2019-03) Grigorescu, Adriana; Lincaru, Cristina; Pîrciog, Speranța; Chițescu, Răzvan Ion
The last years were of profound transformation in public services that knows more or less the challenge from the private sector. A second dimension of competitiveness for the public services staring from 2007 was the free access of the citizens to at least education and health services in European Union. The paper aims to show the evolution of the cohabitation of the public and private sectors on the services of public interest, their development and evolution in different regions. Identifying and highlighting the key issues in competitiveness and quality of the services provided, will give us the main lines for the further development and public policies that should be considered. Considering the cohesion policy of European Union, an analysis of the public and private sectors in public services in Romanian counties could drive us to a conclusion about the affordability and the quality of the services. Using the statistics it can be show the regional distribution of the service providers especially for education, health, water supply and other services. The integrated analysis we offer a global picture of the regional potential and development. Based on the findings the public decision makers could better set up the sectorial public policies and the public spending. Never the less, the European support could be also directed to increase the quality and efficiency of the public services.
Demographic Dependency and the Future of the European Workforce: A Spatial–Temporal Forecasting Approach
(MDPI, 2026-05-01) Lincaru, Cristina; Grigorescu Adriana; Pirciog Camelia Speranta; Tudose Gabriela
This research paper examines the spatial and time variation of demographic dependency in Europe in a 30-year horizon of the evolution of the demographic dividend regarding the economic dependency ratio (ADR1). We used the Curve Fit Forecast tool to estimate the trends of ADR1 in each of the EU Member States using data on Eurostat projections and a sophisticated geostatistical analysis tool developed in ArcGIS Pro 3.2.2. The findings indicate that the dependency in all countries has increased significantly in a statistically significant manner as the Gompertz function has appeared as the best curve in a third of the cases. It is an S-shaped asymptotic behaviour of this function that effectively describes the nonlinear patterns of acceleration and saturation of demographic ageing. As indicated in the analysis, the European regions are increasingly moving apart, with the southern and eastern nations such as Romania demonstrating the most alarming decline in ADR1. These trends highlight the need to reform labour market policies and social protection mechanisms to an ageing population. The paper combines the curve-fitting, descriptive statistics (median, skewness, interquartile range (IQR)) with time clustering (value, correlation, and Fourier) to provide an effective, replicable approach to early warning and policy prioritisation. Overall, the results highlight the importance of integrating predictive spatial modelling and demographic economics to support anticipatory and evidence-based policy decisions. The proposed approach proves to be a robust and transferable framework, applicable to a wide range of socio-economic phenomena characterised by inertia and structural change. Future research should extend the analysis to subnational levels, incorporate additional explanatory variables, and develop scenario-based simulations, including multivariate Gompertz-type models, to further enhance both predictive accuracy and policy relevance in the context of emerging structural labour scarcity.
Development of a Green Competency Matrix Based on Civil Servants' Perception of Sustainable Development Expertise
(MDPI, 2023-09) Grigorescu, Adriana; Munteanu, Ionela; Dumitrică, Cătălin Daniel; Lincaru, Cristina
This paper analysed the responses of 242 civil servants collected during a survey for public authorities personnel with management or executive responsibilities. The survey focused on the perception of respondents regarding the key competencies and the utility of the sustainability development expert occupation (SDE). Based on the assumption that the responses were influenced by multiple factors, the impact of perceptual theory, agency theory and sustainability theory calibrated the analysis of the collected data. Cronbach's alpha was used to test the reliability of the received responses and multinominal logistic regression with a single dichotomous variable (Regulation Awareness) and several continuous predictor variables (Specialization, Knowledge, Attributions and Competence) was employed to determine to what extent the SDE occupation would contribute to the implementation of sustainable development policies. This paper argues that the 'green' competency matrix appropriate for the implementation of sustainable development policies should include executive, compliance promoting, ethical and reporting competencies. The creation of a green competency matrix is an important step toward changing the organisational culture of the public or private sectors to achieve sustainable and reliable development. This research can help organizations and public authorities understand where their efforts should be focused to efficiently incorporate sustainability development into their systems.
Digital Skills, Ethics, and Integrity—The Impact of Risky Internet Use, a Multivariate and Spatial Approach to Understanding NEET Vulnerability
(MDPI, 2025) Grigorescu, Adriana; Alistar, Teodor Victor; Lincaru, Cristina
In an era where digitalization shapes economic and social landscapes, the intersection of digital skills, ethics, and integrity plays a crucial role in understanding the vulnerability of youth classified as NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). This study explores how risky internet use and digital skill gaps contribute to socio-economic exclusion, integrating a multivariate and spatial approach to assess regional disparities in Europe. This study adopts a systems thinking perspective to explore digital exclusion as an emergent outcome of multiple interrelated subsystems. The research employs logistic regression, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Promax rotation, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to examine the impact of digital behaviors on NEET status. Using Eurostat data aggregated at the country level for the period (2000–2023) across 28 European countries, this study evaluates 24 digital indicators covering social media usage, instant messaging, daily internet access, data protection awareness, and digital literacy levels. The findings reveal that low digital skills significantly increase the likelihood of being NEET, while excessive social media and internet use show mixed effects depending on socio-economic context. A strong negative correlation between digital security practices and NEET status suggests that youths with a higher awareness of online risks are less prone to socio-economic exclusion. The GIS analysis highlights regional disparities, where countries with limited digital access and lower literacy levels exhibit higher NEET rates. Digital exclusion is not merely a technological issue but a multidimensional socio-economic challenge. To reduce the NEET rate, policies must focus on enhancing digital skills, fostering online security awareness, and addressing regional disparities. Integrating GIS methods allows for the identification of territorial clusters with heightened digital vulnerabilities, guiding targeted interventions for improving youth employability in the digital economy.
Driving Sustainable Development from Fossil to Renewable: A Space–Time Analysis of Electricity Generation Across the EU-28
(MDPI, 2025-11-26) Grigorescu, Adriana; Lincaru, Cristina; Pirciog Camelia Speranta
The transition to renewable energy is crucial in order to attain sustainable development, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and secure long-term energy security. This study examines spatial–temporal trends in electricity generation (both renewable and non-renewable) across EU-28 countries using monthly Eurostat data (2008–2025) at the NUTS0 level. Two harmonized Space–Time Cubes (STCs) were constructed for renewable and non-renewable electricity covering the fully comparable 2017–2024 interval, while 2008–2016 data were used for descriptive validation, and 2025 data were used for one-step-ahead forecasting. In this paper, the authors present a novel multi-method approach to energy transition dynamics in Europe, integrating forecasting (ESF), hot-spot detection (EHSA), and clustering (TSC) with the help of a new spatial–temporal modeling framework. The methodology is a step forward in the development of methodological literature, since it regards predictive and exploratory GIS analytics as comparative energy transition evaluation. The paper uses Exponential Smoothing Forecast (ESF) and Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) in a GIS-based analysis to uncover the dynamics in the region and the possible production pattern. The ESF also reported strong predictive performance in the form of the mean Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of renewable and non-renewable electricity generation of 422.5 GWh and 438.8 GWh, respectively. Of the EU-28 countries, seasonality was statistically significant in 78.6 per cent of locations that relied on hydropower, and 35.7 per cent of locations exhibited structural outliers associated with energy-transition asymmetries. EHSA identified short-lived localized spikes in renewable electricity production in a few Western and Northern European countries: Portugal, Spain, France, Denmark, and Sweden, termed as sporadic renewable hot spots. There were no cases of persistent or increase-based hot spots in any country; therefore, renewable growth is temporally and spatially inhomogeneous in the EU-28. In the case of non-renewable sources, a hot spot was evident in France, with an intermittent hot spot in Spain and sporadic increases over time, but otherwise, there was no statistically significant activity of hot or cold spots in the rest of Europe, indicating structural stagnation in the generation of fossil-based electricity. Time Series Clustering (TSC) determined 10 temporal clusters in the generation of renewable and non-renewable electricity. All renewable clusters were statistically significantly increasing (p < 0.001), with the most substantial increase in Cluster 4 (statistic = 9.95), observed in Poland, Finland, Portugal, and the Netherlands, indicating a transregional phase acceleration of renewable electricity production in northern, western, and eastern Europe. Conversely, all non-renewable clusters showed declining trends (p < 0.001), with Cluster 5 (statistic = −8.58) showing a concerted reduction in the use of fossil-based electricity, in line with EU decarbonization policies. The results contribute to an improved understanding of the spatial dynamics of the European energy transition and its potential to support energy security, reduce fossil fuel dependency, and foster balanced regional development. These insights are crucial to harmonize policy measures with the objectives of the European Green Deal and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (especially Goals 7, 11, and 13).
E-Banking Convergence and the Adopter's Behavior Changing Across EU Countries
(SAGE , 2023-10) Grigorescu, Adriana; Oprișan, Oana; Lincaru, Cristina; Pîrciog, Speranța
"The concepts of internet banking and mobile banking have led to changes in people's financial behavior in terms of earning, consuming, and saving. This new concept, which entered the market quite recently, was used at the beginning of the new digital technology in various types of activities, banking operations, and nowadays these services are used by all people who want to save through banks or create new sources of income, as well as to make quick currency exchanges without going to credit institutions. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze people's behavior toward new digital technologies, e-banking adoption, and non-banking financial institutions internet services. The objectives pursued are: whether e-banking users are homogeneous in their characteristics in the EU 27 and which users have the most convergent or divergent behavior in the EU 27. Statistical data taken from Eurostat 2023 was used for the Sigma convergence analysis, the time series taken into consideration being from 2004 to 2022. The results showed that the changes in the procedural-fiscal-financial sphere are the ones that fully reflect the two principles underlying the tax evolution: digitization and simplification. These results confirm that people are adopting the new digital technology and change their behavior from consumer to prosumer. The study shows that all most categories adopted e-banking using new digital technologies when it comes to consumption and saving, with few exceptions that should be carefully supported. E-Banking convergence and the adopter's behaviour within the EU CountriesThe concepts of internet banking and mobile banking have led to changes in people's financial behavior in terms of earning, consuming, and saving. This new concept, which entered the market quite recently, was used at the beginning of the new digital technology in various types of activities, banking operations, and nowadays these services are used by all people who want to save through banks or create new sources of income, as well as to make quick currency exchanges without going to credit institutions. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze people's behavior towards new digital technologies, e-banking adoption, and non-banking financial institutions internet services. The objectives pursued are: whether e-banking users are homogeneous in their characteristics in the EU 27 and which users have the most convergent or divergent behavior in the EU 27. Statistical data taken from Eurostat 2023 was used for the Sigma convergence analysis, the time series taken into consideration being from 2004 to 2022. The results showed that the changes in the procedural-fiscal-financial sphere are the ones that fully reflect the two principles underlying the tax evolution: digitization and simplification. These results confirm that people are adopting the new digital technology and change their behavior from consumer to prosumer. The study shows that all most categories adopted e-banking using new digital technologies when it comes to consumption and saving, with few exceptions that should be carefully supported. Digital transformation is not just about buying new, modern equipment, or retrieving data quickly and securely, but also about the technical implementation of state-of-the-art IT systems. It should be noted that digitization has had important effects on both public and private organizations and people, which can be translated as follows: time saved in people's interaction with public and private organizations; efficiency in administrative processes; transparency in their work. The economic environment becomes much more attractive and leads to investment and innovation in all areas. The digitization of all public or private services would also strengthen the administrative capacity of the whole population. Through studies, research, and future studies, it is essential to analyze and demonstrate that new digital technologies and their use could lead to the elimination of tax fraud, increased public confidence in local or central government and confidence in business. Finally, we can say that it is essential that new research in the field of digitization and e-banking use strengthens the literature reviews and explains at a higher level the answers to all research questions."
Economic Resilience and Sustainable Finance Path to Development and Convergence in Romanian Counties
(MDPI, 2023-10) Oprișan, Oana; Pîrciog, Speranța; Ionașcu, Alina Elena; Lincaru, Cristina; Grigorescu, Adriana
Economic resilience and sustainable finance are two interlinked and crucial issues for development and convergence in Romania's counties increasing cohesion. These issues can contribute to sustainable and balanced growth of local and regional economies and to the reduction of inequalities in regional development. Economic resilience in counties refers to their capacity to adapt and survive in the face of unforeseen economic shocks or challenges, and sustainable finance refers to ensuring responsible management of financial resources to support long-term development and protect the environment. Identifying and understanding the significant variations in economic resilience and sustainable financing between counties is essential for the formulation of regional development policies and strategies. These variations provide valuable information about the vulnerabilities and opportunities of individual counties and guide resource allocation and investment decisions. The research provides new data and relevant information on the significant variations among counties in economic resilience and sustainable financing, using a Markov transition probability matrix and exploratory-visual method. This study on Romanian counties aims to provide valuable information for the formulation of public policies to support balanced economic development across the country. The results showed that economic diversification is essential to increase the resilience of the economy to shocks and fluctuations. Counties that have a diversified economic structure, with multiple sources of income and economic activities, are less vulnerable to the negative impact of economic or natural events. Governance and political stability are key factors in creating a favorable environment for investment and economic development. Well-managed government policies can help maintain macroeconomic stability and increase the resilience of the economy to external fluctuations.
Intersectoral Labour Mobility in Europe as a Driver of Resilience and Innovation: Evidence from Granularity and Spatio-Temporal Modelling
(MDPI, 2025-11-18) Lincaru, Cristina; Pirciog, Camelia Speranta; Grigorescu, Adriana; Mladen-Macovei, Luise
Intersectoral labour mobility is a key driver of economic resilience and innovation in Europe. The redistribution of workers across sectors and regions enables economies to adapt to shocks, create flexibility and increase the rate of structural change. However, the dynamics of mobility have not been adequately investigated across varying scales of sectoral granularity and spatio-temporal dimensions. This paper applies the Intersectoral Mobility Index (MI) to all European NUTS-2 areas from 2008 to 2020, utilising Eurostat Structural Business Statistics. Two levels of sectoral aggregation (NACE Rev. 2, 1-digit and 2-digit) are employed to compute MI, capturing both broad and fine-grained reallocations. Classical indices of structural change (NAV, Krugman, Shorrocks) are combined with spatio-temporal modelling in ArcGIS Pro, employing Space–Time Cubes, time-series exponential smoothing forecasts, time-series clustering and emerging hot spot analysis. Results indicate that MI distributions are positively skewed and heavy-tailed, with peaks coinciding with systemic crises (2009–2011, 2020). At the 2-digit level, MI values are significantly higher, revealing intra-sectoral changes obscured in aggregated data. A statistically significant downward trend in mobility suggests an increasing structural rigidity following the global financial crisis. Regional clustering highlights heterogeneity: a small number of regions, such as Bremen, Madeira and the Southern Great Plain, have sustained high or unstable mobility, while most exhibit convergent mobility and low reallocation. This paper contributes to the conceptualisation of MI as a dual measure of resilience and innovation preparedness. It underscores the importance of multi-scalar and spatio-temporal methods in monitoring labour market flexibility. The findings have policy implications, including the design of targeted reskilling programmes, proactive labour market policies and just transition plans to maintain regional resilience during the EU’s green and digital transitions.
Low-Low (LL) high human capital clusters in public administration employment - predictor for digital infrastructure public investment priority - Romania case study
(Enterpreneurship & Sustainability Center, 2018-12-30) Lincaru, Cristina; Pîrciog, Speranța; Grigorescu, Adriana; Tudose, Gabriela
Disruptive innovations generated by digital technologies push the public services to digital transformation in order to become not only a problems solver for community, but a real social, economic and environmental development engine. With all significant progress, the use of e-Government services in Romania remains the lowest in the EU; high quality services are not available in a significant part of rural areas. The paper highlighted the spatial heterogeneities of the broadband infrastructure at level of NUTS - 5 expansion correlated to Low-Low (LL) high human capital clusters in public administration and marginalized rural areas. Using data from World Bank studies, provided in the ArcGis Cloud, from Romanian broadband investment prioritization and micro data provided by INS census, we developed a spatial cluster analysis by the means of ESDA method. In public administration the high human capital is clustered in a few innovative hubs which in the absence of a functional and interconnected national administration IT system makes difficult the public administration modernization, especially in the context of regional decentralization. At the county level is visible the pattern of center periphery, where the center is usually the county residence and the LL clusters are the frontier of the counties. Usually, at this frontier are located marginalized rural areas where are provided poor public services. As a recommendation, the future e-government development must be spatial harmonized with the high human capital in order to assure a valuable public service, everywhere, whether it is the smallest village or a big city, to reconnect the public to the state and the state to the public in an inclusive and intelligent manner.
Mapping European high-digital intensive sectors-regional growth accelerator for the circular economy
(Frontiers , 2023-01-06) Pîrciog, Speranța; Grigorescu, Adriana; Lincaru, Cristina; Popa, Florin Marius; Carlson, Ewa Lazarczyk; Sigurdarson, Hallur Thor
Globalization and the Fourth Industrial Revolution or Industry 4.0 act as shocks on regional labor markets and regional economies. The presence of a digital economy has high spillover effects on regional development, job creation, economic resilience, and sustainability; furthermore, it valuates eco-innovation and the clean economy. We believe that the process of digital transformation has a robust impact on the green and clean aspects of the entire economy. The consistency of high digital-intensive (HDI) sectors can be evaluated through high digital-intensive employment, human resources, and technological infrastructure, as these are the main pillars of digital transformation. The shift-share analysis method (SSM) is used in this study on employment growth during 2008-2018 for the EU27, the United Kingdom, and Norway, combined with a second stage of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). The findings on national growth, industrial mix, and competitiveness are presented in GIS mapping system considering the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) technique at the NUTS2 level. This approach allows us to determine the clustering level of high digital-intensive employment and sectors, resilience based on connectivity and eco-innovation, and the regional potential of digital transformation. Policymakers and political or governmental decision-makers could consider the results of the present study as the starting point for developing and implementing their policies for a sustainable green regional economy and determine the emerging area patches that need to be stimulated.
Mapping post crises the European job growth in travel agencies and tour operator reservation services
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis , 2021-01-01) Grigorescu, Adriana; Lincaru, Cristina; Pîrciog, Speranța; Chițescu, Răzvan Ion
World Tourism Organisation, declares the Tour Operators as tourism engine of strategically importance to support jobs and inclusive growth in all regions. Tour operators emerges following the 2008 crises, as a global job engine. Its atypical profile of highest human capital concentrator in tourism, attract and retain talents, works digital with a high-intensity information use. Is a rapid adopter of technological innovation, generate high value added in highly competitive global markets. We look in this paper to understand why employment is growing or declining in a regional tourism tour operator sector during 2008-2018, in some EU28 regions? We use Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to map the indicator 'tour operator's employment growth' components decomposed by the Shift Share Analysis Method. Analysed Eurostat data for 266 regions (281 regions) indicates that for the average regional tour operators employment growth heterogeneity is driven almost at half by region-specific factors. The main contributions are: identifying this indicator as appropriate to be a core one in OECD (2013) tourism competitiveness framework & redefine tour operator sector as a core sector of tourism in the Global model of tourism of Harrison.
Marginalised Zones As Statistical Instruments To Navigate Permacrisis Impacts In European Regions
(Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, 2025) Lincaru, Cristina; Tudose, Gabriela; Grigorescu, Adriana; Pîrciog, Speranța; Stroe, Cristina
In the context of overlapping and interrelated crises—economic, ecological, social, and geopolitical—European regions are confronted with new governance challenges. Marginalised zones, often treated as residual spaces in policy discourse, must be reimagined as analytical and governance instruments in the transition toward sustainability and territorial resilience. This article explores how marginalised areas can be conceptualised and operationalised through spatial statistical methodologies and policy frameworks that support just transition processes. Drawing on a critical review of empirical studies and strategic European and Romanian documents, we synthesise the main tools used to identify territorial disparities, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), clustering algorithms, fuzzy logic, spatial econometrics, and machine learning. We confirm that these methods allow for more nuanced territorial diagnostics and typologies, which are essential for evidence-based and place-based policies. The article advances a transdisciplinary framework that repositions marginalised zones as strategic levers in adaptive territorial governance. Ultimately, we argue for a paradigm shift: from periphery to policy, where marginalised regions evolve from passive recipients of aid to active instruments of just transition.
NO ONE LEFT BEHIND: ENABLING DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF HUMAN EUROPEAN WORKERS
(Vilnius University, 2024) Duke, Benjamin; Grigorescu, Adriana; Lincaru, Cristina; Ciucă, Vasilica; Dragomir, Mihai Silviu
Digital transformation generates rapid and radical structural changes, increasing the need to leave no one behind during the Industrial Revolution 4.0. New categories of workers are generated, and we can talk about the bots/robots as Digital Workers, the employees who are using digital facilities and have a digital education as Digital Human Workers, and the Human Workers who are not using digital instruments. Human Workers are the most exposed to being left behind once digital transformation is adopted by almost all the actors of the social and economic environment. Therefore, we find it urgent to dimension the scale of digital skills demanded at the EU level for the persons at risk of being left behind and estimate the average costs of transformative action at the enterprise level used for digital skills development. Public Employment Services have an important role among the enablers meant to accelerate digital skills for workers. Its primary target is the most vulnerable categories of workers. The study estimates the financial effort of continuous vocational training using a Linear Mixed Model on panel data from Eurostat. The results highlighted the new role of Public Employment Services as enablers of the Digital Transformation of Human European Workers, creating digital skills as portable skills that enhance the intersectoral mobility of Human Workers. Estimating the cost impact is relevant for policymakers and public decision-makers to create the framework of no one left behind. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the implementation effort for Enabling the Digital Transformation of Human European Workers.
Parabolic Modeling Forecasts of Space and Time European Hydropower Production
(MDPI, 2024-06) Lincaru, Cristina; Grigorescu, Adriana; Dincer, Hasan
Renewable sources of energy production are some of the main targets today to protect the environment through reduced fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Alongside wind, solar, marine, biomass and nuclear sources, hydropower is among the oldest but still not fully explored renewable energy sources. Compared with other sources like wind and solar, hydropower is more stable and consistent, offering increased predictability. Even so, it should be analyzed considering water flow, dams capacity, climate change, irrigation, navigation, and so on. The aim of this study is to propose a forecast model of hydropower production capacity and identify long-term trends. The curve fit forecast parabolic model was applied to 33 European countries for time series data from 1990 to 2021. Space-time cube ArcGIS representation in 2D and 3D offers visualization of the prediction and model confidence rate. The quadratic trajectory fit the raw data for 14 countries, validated by visual check, and in 20 countries, validated by FMRSE 10% threshold from the maximal value. The quadratic model choice is good for forecasting future values of hydropower electric capacity in 22 countries, with accuracy confirmed by the VMRSE 10% threshold from the maximal value. Seven local outliers were identified, with only one validated as a global outlier based on the Generalized Extreme Studentized Deviate (GESD) test at a 5% maximal number of outliers and a 90% confidence level. This result achieves our objective of estimating a level with a high degree of occurrence and offering a reliable forecast of hydropower production capacity. All European countries show a growing trend in the short term, but the trends show a stagnation or decrease if policies do not consider intensive growth through new technology integration and digital adoption. Unfortunately, Europe does not have extensive growth potential compared with Asia-Pacific. Public policies must boost hybrid hydro-wind or hydro-solar systems and intensive technical solutions.
Regional Digital Resilience and the 4Helix Model-The Higher Education Institutions' Case in Romania
(MDPI, 2023-06) Grigorescu, Adriana; Lincaru, Cristina; Sigurjonsson, Throstur Olaf; Pîrciog, Speranța
Against the background of multiple and simultaneous global socio-economic shocks, coupled with digital transformation and the green transition, regional resilience triggers new structural transformations. The more complex processes that need to be addressed now require the usage of complex integrated tools. The novelty of the integrated approach is the combination of the models and the synthetic spatial-temporal picture offered. The quadruple helix, or 4Helix, model puts Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) at the nexus of generating regional digital resilience. We posit a new mindset and behavior of human capital to reinforce innovation and knowledge production and transfer. We explore, using the Romanian national case, to what degree the spatial 4Helix model generates regional digital resilience as a positive externality of adoption of the 'new normal' digital education. We analyze this process in three steps. (1) We determine the spatial distribution of HEIs at the Romanian county level (NUTS3). (2) We calculate the regional static and dynamic resilience indexes (at NUTS2) as the outcome of the method for multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) by each region's digital economy as well as individual and regional wealth, social digital use and social digital connectivity dimensions. (3) Lastly, we provide the result of overlaid maps and radar charts (using HEIs number and spatial coverage and each region's static and dynamic digital resilience). These three classes of digital resilience models of 4Helix by region indicate a generalized failure in adopting digital education in Romania. The study contributes by adding a powerful tool to explore the complex processes or phenomena and generating an integrated perspective using a pre-existing framework. In doing so, it enables researchers to better understand and address society's needs, co-create knowledge and solutions together with the end-users, maximize the impact of these solutions, optimize resources usage, and increase the transparency and accountability of the decision-making processes.
Self-employment and unemployment relationship in Romania - Insights by age, education and gender
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis, 2020-01) Grigorescu, Adriana; Pîrciog, Speranța; Lincaru, Cristina
We check on the short term if self-employment in Romania influences unemployment and vice versa. Age, education and gender characteristics treat both variables, and self-employment considers both cases with and without employees. The objective is to look at the job creation and unemployment reduction in quarterly variation during the 1999Q1-2017Q3 period. On autoregressive models, we apply the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure, detailed by Giles (2011), to assess for Granger Causality. We found for unemployment rates a push effect in the self-employment rate for adults and youth with low education level to self-employment without employees' rate for adults and self-employment with employees' rate for old adults. We establish a 'Schumpeter' effect for the adult with a low level of education self-employment to unemployment, for adults' males with tertiary education and self-employed, and older adults self-employed without employees to unemployment. We conclude that unemployment work as an inclusion mechanism for some vulnerable groups but inefficient for others. Self-employment with employees is less diversified, indicating a high-risk aversion and low start-up effect. In general, the labour market presents a unidirectional flexibility effect.
Solar energy production in EU + countries using space–time forecasting
(Springer Nature, 2026-01-09) Grigorescu, Adriana; Lincaru, Cristina; Pirciog Camelia Speranta
The need for renewable energy is underscored by the shift from fossil fuels without compromising economic growth. The European Union’s strategy for resilient energy recognizes solar energy as a crucial resource. In recent years, there has been a significant focus on evaluating renewable energy production, distribution, consumption, storage, and applications. One key aspect of this evaluation is exploring production capacity trends using forecasting models. Our study proposes a space–time forecasting approach using the Curve Fit Forecast tool integrated in ArcGIS Pro 3.3, applied to solar energy in 37 European locations based on 1990–2022 data. The model tested four curved types and identified exponential growth patterns in 54% of cases, with consistent upward trends confirmed through RMSE validation. Outlier detection and 3D spatial–temporal visualization provide diagnostic insight into regional disparities and transformation regimes. This digitally enabled, geostatistical method aligns with the EU’s data-driven energy transition agenda, offering a scalable and interpretable tool for policymakers and planners.
Space-Time Forecasting of Heating & Cooling Energy Needs as an Energy Poverty Measure in Romania
(MDPI, 2024) Grigorescu, Adriana; Pîrciog, Camelia Speranța; Lincaru, Cristina
Lack of access to basic energy services, known as energy poverty, remains felt in the country, with seasonal changes and an economic divide. The frameworks to measure energy poverty differ spatially and temporally, with climate change and behavioral culture being the essential influencing factors. This paper is focused on heating and cooling energy demands, which can be defined as an energy poverty metric for the propensity to be at risk of energy poverty caused by climate regime. Employing sophisticated statistical space–time forecasting tools, we build a model incorporating spatial and temporal energy consumption volatility across Romanian regions at the NUTS3 level. The model considers climatic conditions and raw data from 45 years (1979–2023) of cooling and heating degree days to determine local trajectories for the next nine years. Identifying high-energy-poverty-risk areas in our research can provide valuable insights for policymakers, enabling them to develop targeted plans for eliminating energy poverty and ensuring equitable access to heating and cooling. The results underline the necessity of differentiated approaches in energy policies and add value to the general understanding of energy poverty issues and conditions, considering the Romanian climatic and socio-economic context.
Specialization Patterns for the Development of Renewable Energy Generation Technologies across Countries
(MDPI, 2023-10) Grigorescu, Adriana; Lopez Ruiz, Victor Paul; Lincaru, Cristina; Condrea, Elena
Renewable energy is a global priority, as it addresses the goals of carbon neutrality and plays an important role in reshaping energy mixes. The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (solar, photovoltaic, geothermal, hydropower, wind, and biomass) must be performed without negatively affecting economic growth or our quality of life. Renewable energy-generating technologies (patents) and their implementation (commercialization and usage) play essential roles, as they are the main steps in the process of the transition from conventional to emerging technologies. The decreased usage of fossil fuels, the objectives of the European Green Deal, and other constraints have pushed countries to seek innovative solutions. Depending on the available resources, these solutions involve a wide variety of approaches and may involve the emergence of specific patterns. This study addresses the identification of the cross-country features of specialization patterns in developing renewable energy generation technologies. The methods used are the analysis of the evolution of patent numbers with country fractional value, the application of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to renewable energy generation, and the use of the multivariate clustering spatial statistics tool combined with spatial representation. The findings show the differences between countries at the global level and, more specifically, at the EU level, by clustering the countries based on their specialization pattern of renewable energy generation technologies. EU countries belong to the same cluster at the international level, and the deep clustering model shows four patterns. Moreover, the findings highlighted the country profile to be used as a competitive advantage and the group of countries with the same or similar pattern that could be used as partners in implementing new technologies or as models for future actions. The geographical distribution of the specialization offers a picture of potential market development for patents and renewable energy technologies. The countries specialization is a hotspot for decision makers for further developments and policy design support.