Browsing by Author "Dumitrescu Peculea, A."

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    Does technological progress promote or prevent trade conflict? Evidence from China
    (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2024) Zhao, Q.; Su, C.-W.; Dumitrescu Peculea, A.
    Using the bootstrap rolling-window subsample Granger causality test from China, this study analyses the influence of technological progress (TP) on trade conflict (TC). The results show that TP can both promote and prevent TC. In 2012 and 2018, TP led to more trade conflicts between China and its trading partners. This result proves the “trade-loss effect”, suggesting that TP in one country promotes TC by threatening other countries’ income. However, TP had a negative influence on TC in 2021 and 2022. This finding is consistent with the “welfare effect”, implying that TP can prevent TC by providing more high-quality and cheaper products for worldwide consumers. This study suggests that the government should adopt appropriate trade policies when encouraging TP to promote bilateral trade. Furthermore, firms should develop their own high-quality irreplaceable products through technological innovation to address TC risk.
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    Will peer-to-peer online lending affect the effectiveness of monetary policy?
    (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2025) Su C. W.; Liu, X.; Vătavu, S.; Dumitrescu Peculea, A.
    Online lending is a product of digital transformation, which has had a profound impact on the traditional money market. This paper discusses the impact of peer-topeer (P2P) online lending on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Through the bootstrap sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests show that P2P has both positive and negative impacts on the money supply (M2). The positive impact of P2P on M2 indicates that online loans increase the amount of money supply. The negative impact of P2P on M2 shows that it may cut the money supply, thus weakening the monetary policy effectiveness. The general equilibrium model is inconsistent with these results, which underlines a positive effect from P2P to M2. In turn, the negative impact points out that the adjustment of monetary policy will hinder the development of P2P. The negative impact of M2 on P2P indicates that through the regulation of money supply, the online lending market can be correctly guided to prevent financial market from getting out of control. Through the supervision of online lending industry, we can accurately grasp the development of the internet financial industry and reduce its impact on monetary policy