Browsing by Author "Daianu, Daniel"

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    Lessons from Romaniaʼs EU Accession for Todayʼs Candidate States
    (SSRN, 2026-08-05) Daianu, Daniel; Kallai, Ela; Lungu, Laurian
    Romaniaʼs EU accession in 2007, after a decade of externally anchored reform, offers an instructive case for todayʼs enlargement candidates. This paper examines the pre-accession periodʼs reform achievements and their limits, the post-accession reversal driven by moral hazard and political economy, and sectoral outcomes across energy, information technology, public administration, and judicial reform. It then situates Romaniaʼs macro-structural trajectory — consumption-led convergence, twin deficits, and a narrowing fiscal corridor — within the broader convergence debate. Five lessons emerge for current candidates: conditionality is powerful but time-limited; fiscal institutions matter more than fiscal targets; absorption capacity is a binding constraint that must be built pre-accession; post-accession boom-bust dynamics are predictable and require a pre-emptive policy; and honest political narratives about the benefits and costs of reforms are a precondition for durable change.
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    Macroeconomic consequences of the war in Ukraine on Central and Eastern European economies: a SVAR analysis
    (Taylor & Francis online, 2025-10-27) Daianu, Daniel; Grosu, Tudor; Neacsu, Andrei; Tanase, Andrei; Vranceanu, Radu
    This paper investigates the short-term macroeconomic effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on the economies of Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania and compares these effects observed in these countries with those recorded in Germany, France and Italy. The analysis relies on the estimation of Bayesian SVARs for each economy with the war shock identified using the Geopolitical Risk Index. Simulations show that, by the end of 2022, the war contributed to a rise in inflation by 0.3-0.8 percentage points and a lower GDP by approximately 0.3 percent compared to the counterfactual ‘no-war’ scenario. Our findings suggest a similar impact on economic activity and a larger impact on inflation in CEE countries compared to Western European economies. For core inflation, the results indicate a smaller impact than for headline inflation, but one that proves more persistent.